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On the connection between financial processes with stochastic volatility and nonextensive statistical mechanics

机译:论随机波动率的金融过程之间的联系   和非广泛的统计力学

摘要

The $GARCH$ algorithm is the most renowned generalisation of Engle's originalproposal for modelising {\it returns}, the $ARCH$ process. Both cases arecharacterised by presenting a time dependent and correlated variance or {\itvolatility}. Besides a memory parameter, $b$, (present in $ARCH$) and anindependent and identically distributed noise, $\omega $, $GARCH$ involvesanother parameter, $c$, such that, for $c=0$, the standard $ARCH$ process isreproduced. In this manuscript we use a generalised noise following adistribution characterised by an index $q_{n}$, such that $q_{n}=1$ recoversthe Gaussian distribution. Matching low statistical moments of $GARCH$distribution for returns with a $q$-Gaussian distribution obtained throughmaximising the entropy $S_{q}=\frac{1-\sum_{i}p_{i}^{q}}{q-1}$, basis ofnonextensive statistical mechanics, we obtain a sole analytical connectionbetween $q$ and $(b,c,q_{n}) $ which turns out to be remarkably good whencompared with computational simulations. With this result we also derive ananalytical approximation for the stationary distribution for the (squared)volatility. Using a generalised Kullback-Leibler relative entropy form based on$S_{q}$, we also analyse the degree of dependence between successive returns,$z_{t}$ and $z_{t+1}$, of GARCH(1,1) processes. This degree of dependence isquantified by an entropic index, $q^{op}$. Our analysis points the existence ofa unique relation between the three entropic indexes $q^{op}$, $q$ and $q_{n}$of the problem, independent of the value of $(b,c)$.
机译:$ GARCH $算法是Engle用于建模{\ it return}($ ARCH $流程)的原始建议中最著名的概括。两种情况的特征都是通过呈现时间相关和相关的方差或{\ itvolatility}。除了内存参数$ b $(以$ ARCH $表示)和独立且分布均匀的噪声$ \ omega $ GARCH $涉及另一个参数$ c $,使得对于$ c = 0 $,标准复制$ ARCH $进程。在本手稿中,我们使用分布为特征的广义噪声,其特征在于索引为$ q_ {n} $,使得$ q_ {n} = 1 $恢复高斯分布。通过最大化熵$ S_ {q} = \ frac {1- \ sum_ {i} p_ {i} ^ {q}} {q,将收益的$ GARCH $分布的低统计矩与$ q $-高斯分布相匹配-1} $是非广义统计力学的基础,我们获得了$ q $和$(b,c,q_ {n})$之间的唯一分析联系,与计算模拟相比,它表现得非常好。通过此结果,我们还可以得出(平方)波动率的平稳分布的解析近似值。使用基于$ S_ {q} $的广义Kullback-Leibler相对熵形式,我们还分析了GARCH(1,的连续收益$ z_ {t} $和$ z_ {t + 1} $之间的依赖程度。 1)流程。这种依赖程度由熵索引$ q ^ {op} $量化。我们的分析指出了问题的三个熵索引$ q ^ {op} $,$ q $和$ q_ {n} $之间存在唯一关系,而与$(b,c)$的值无关。

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